Published on November 20, 2024
The re-election of Donald Trump has sent shockwaves through global climate policy discussions, raising concerns about the future of US commitment to international climate agreements. The climate community, already grappling with a host of environmental challenges, now faces the prospect of a significant shift in US policy under Trump 2.0. This change is poised to have both immediate and long-term ramifications for climate action in the United States and around the world.
At the time of writing, the ongoing COP29 summit is focused on pragmatic climate action, with a strong emphasis on climate finance. The major discussion point at this year's summit is the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), which aims to raise trillions of dollars to meet global climate needs. However, the pledged $100 billion from developed nations falls woefully short of these ambitions. Estimates suggest that developed countries need to raise $1.3 trillion annually through 2030 to help developing nations tackle the climate crisis, without stifling their economic growth. With Trump's return to power, however, the progress made in global climate negotiations—especially under President Biden's leadership—could be undone.
The United States has long been at the center of global climate policy debates. In 1998, U.S. Vice President Al Gore played a key role in signing the Kyoto Protocol, which mandated emissions reductions for developed countries. However, the U.S. Senate refused to ratify the agreement, and in 2001, President George W. Bush withdrew the U.S. from the protocol. In 2017, during Trump’s first term, the United States officially withdrew from the Paris Agreement, with Trump famously calling it “a rip-off” and “a disaster.”
Trump's first term saw attempts to roll back more than 125 environmental protections, many of which were later blocked by the courts. Trump 2.0, however, is likely to be even more aggressive in dismantling climate-related policies. He has already nominated Chris Wright, a fracking magnate and climate change sceptic, to head the Department of Energy. Wright is tasked with "cutting red tape" to encourage more fossil fuel investment, a clear indication that Trump's administration will prioritize oil and gas over clean energy. A full withdrawal from the Paris Agreement seems imminent, and the U.S. would join the ranks of countries like Iran, Libya, and Yemen in rejecting the global climate accord.
Trump’s re-election casts doubt on the future of international climate agreements and finance. The COP29 summit, which saw the absence of several world leaders—including U.S. President Joe Biden—serves as a reminder of the lack of political will to tackle the climate crisis. The absence of major figures like Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Brazilian President Lula da Silva highlights the growing reluctance to make bold commitments. If the U.S. steps back from its climate responsibilities, the burden of leadership may fall on the European Union (EU), already under strain due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as on developing economies that face increasing resource constraints.
Domestically, Trump’s policies are expected to further erode U.S. climate action. Agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of the Interior, which play critical roles in enforcing environmental regulations, are likely to face severe budget cuts under Trump 2.0. In addition, Trump is expected to expand fossil fuel production, halt clean energy development, and reverse key provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), such as tax incentives for clean energy projects. Furthermore, Trump’s administration would likely reduce or eliminate U.S. contributions to climate finance for vulnerable nations, which have already struggled with delayed and inadequate funding.
Trump's stance on climate finance highlights a deeper, troubling narrative: for many developed nations, climate finance is seen as a transactional obligation rather than an ethical responsibility. While the EU has committed to aggressive climate targets—such as achieving net-zero emissions by 2050—its implementation has been criticized for delays and insufficient ambition. Similarly, despite promises made during the Paris Agreement in 2015, climate finance commitments from Western countries have often fallen short, with political instability and shifting economic priorities undermining progress. The U.S., under President Obama, made significant climate finance pledges, but Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and his climate policies hindered these commitments. Although President Biden has partially restored some of these pledges, a Trump administration could reverse this progress.
While federal action on climate change is in jeopardy under Trump, momentum at the state and local levels continues to grow. When Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement in 2017, a coalition of states, cities, businesses, and tribal nations quickly came together to form the We Are Still In initiative. This coalition, now including over 4,000 leaders, has committed to meeting the Paris Agreement’s emissions-reduction targets regardless of federal policies. The Accelerating America’s Pledge report of 2019 demonstrated that subnational actors could reduce U.S. emissions by up to 37% by 2030, even without federal intervention.
States like California, Washington, and New York are poised to lead the way in climate action. California voters recently approved a $10 billion bond measure to address climate impacts, and Washington state has implemented laws requiring businesses to cut carbon emissions. These efforts are bolstered by bipartisan support for clean energy incentives, such as those found in the Inflation Reduction Act, which has already created over 330,000 clean energy jobs. In fact, the majority of clean energy projects are landing in Republican districts, demonstrating that climate action is not limited to blue states.
Corporate America is also playing a significant role in climate action. Major companies across various sectors have committed to net-zero emissions targets and joined initiatives like the We Mean Business coalition. The growing emphasis on corporate responsibility and sustainability ensures that climate progress will continue, even in the face of federal setbacks.
The re-election of Donald Trump signals a potential retreat from U.S. leadership on climate change, both domestically and globally. His administration’s focus on fossil fuels, deregulation, and climate skepticism threatens to undo the progress made under previous administrations. However, the resilience of subnational actors—states, cities, businesses, and civil society—means that climate action in the U.S. will continue, even in the face of federal inaction. While the U.S. may step back from its international obligations, the underlying momentum for climate action, driven by state and local initiatives, as well as private sector innovation, will likely continue to push the nation toward a cleaner, more sustainable future.
*The Author is Deputy Director at the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS), India.
Disclaimer: The Views expressed in the article are of the Author.
Image Credit: Newyork Times
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