Trump 2.0: US Climate Policy in Jeopardy

By Ritika Bhattacharya

Published on December 31, 2024

Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election marks a significant moment in US political history as he returns to the white house after a tumultuous first term. This transition foreshadows a potential shift in policy direction, particularly regarding climate change, which could have far-reaching implications both domestically and globally. It seems Trump would aggressively dismantle all Biden-era climate initiatives.

Trump has always been very skeptical towards environmental regulations and his return has reignited debates around climate policy with a focus on fossil fuel expansion, deregulation of environmental protections and exit from international climate commitments.

Trump’s climate agenda commonly referred to as “drill, baby, drill,” is characterized by a strong emphasis on fossil fuel production and making American energy dominant. During Trump’s previous administration, the US emerged as the leading oil producer globally in 2018, exceeding the production levels of all other countries. In 2024 during his election campaign, Trump asserted that the US possesses the most extensive oil reserves of any nation and expressed his commitment to further increasing production, especially through aggressive drilling. He contended that such initiatives could lead to a 50% reduction in energy expenses.

Donald Trump's stance on the Paris Climate Agreement has been a major point of contention. During his first term in 2017, he announced the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, citing plans to cease all implementation of it. The Biden administration rejoined the Paris Agreement on February 19, 2021, reversing the Trump administration's withdrawal, which had made the US the only country to exit since the accord's inception in 2015. Donald Trump has indicated plans to yet again withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again once he assumes office in January 2025. His transition team has reportedly prepared executive orders for this purpose, which would allow a quicker exit compared to his previous term.

Additionally, the Biden era Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been a game-changer since its signing into law in 2022. This landmark legislation has directed federal spending towards reducing carbon emissions, lowering healthcare costs, funding the Internal Revenue Service, and improving taxpayer compliance. In terms of energy, the IRA allocates nearly $400 billion in federal funding to clean energy, with the aim of lowering the nation’s carbon emissions by 2030. The law includes billions in subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs), solar and wind energy, and other clean energy sources, advancing substantial investment in domestic manufacturing. This investment is expected to catalyze trillions of dollars in clean energy investments, create millions of new jobs, and increase GDP, ultimately supporting a cleaner, more sustainable future for the United States. However, Trump has signaled plans to rescind all unspent funds under the IRA, citing that the law is too costly for the country.

Trump's opposition to climate change mitigation efforts reflects a long-standing tradition of US isolationism and skepticism towards multilateral institutions. Trump's "America First" approach prioritizes economic growth and energy dominance over environmental concerns. His administration has promoted fossil fuel development. The US Senate's rejection of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, citing concerns about economic harm and unequal commitments from developing countries, set a precedent for this stance. Trump's worldview emphasizes individual liberty and the right to exploit natural resources, making collective action on climate change a difficult fit.

With the US stepping back, some countries may stay committed to their climate goals regardless of US actions, and others might reduce their efforts due to geopolitical, economic, or symbolic reasons. The countries like China, India or institutions like the European Union (EU) are likely to stay committed. These actors could position themselves as a global climate leader by filling the leadership gap created by US climate policy shifts, enhancing their diplomatic influence and attracting investments in renewable energy. China, the world's largest carbon emitter, is poised to assert its global influence through de-carbonization efforts and dominance in critical clean technologies, such as solar energy and electric vehicles. By offering climate-related assistance to developing countries, China aims to showcase its technological prowess, bolster its diplomatic clout, and potentially surpassing US competitiveness in the burgeoning clean energy market. India, on the other hand, can bolster its diplomatic influence in renewable energy by investing in regional energy infrastructure and by deepening cooperation with other States, reaffirming renewable energy targets and offering investment incentives. EU can lead by promoting sustainable finance, support climate resilience and adaptation efforts in developing countries. It can also collaborate with vulnerable countries to achieve an ambitious finance outcome.

However, there are also emerging economies, such as Brazil or South Africa, who might reduce their efforts and might use US withdrawal as justification to prioritize economic growth over climate commitments, especially if they view climate action as a shared responsibility of developed nations. They can leverage the Common But differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) principle strategically to balance climate action and economic growth.

The US retreat from renewable energy and its focus on fossil fuels jeopardize its credibility and participation in international climate forums, further isolating the nation from global climate leadership.

The anticipated US retreat from climate leadership under the second Trump presidency would also weaken international agreements. The withdrawal would likely undermine the Paris Agreement's delicate balance, as the US represents over 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The withdrawal would also impact the global climate finance mechanisms as the US initially pledged $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund, which means withdrawal will lose these funds. This policy shift would prove critical at this time as climate disasters intensify globally. By prioritizing short-term economic gains over long-term sustainability, the US could exacerbate global inequities and slow progress on climate action.

However, to look at the other side of the picture, developing countries could benefit from Donald Trump's "drill baby drill" policy, which emphasizes increased fossil fuel production. The increased US oil production may lead to lower global oil prices, benefiting energy-importing developing nations by reducing their energy costs. However, these benefits must be weighed against potential environmental impacts and the long-term need for sustainable energy solutions.

While Trump’s policies may pose challenges to global climate efforts, they also open up ways for the other nations to redefine their roles and strengthen their strategies in addressing climate change. It is very true that climate change is not regarded as a significant threat by Donald Trump but it continues to be a pressing issue, particularly for developing regions such as Africa, where it is perceived as a “race against time.”

The urgency of addressing climate change cannot be neglected, as its impacts are felt across the globe, affecting ecosystems, economies, and communities. Even if US is starting to roll back from major climate action, it is the responsibility of the other countries to come together and stand in solidarity for tackling climate change. It is crucial for everyone to recognize the importance of taking action, as the consequences of inaction most certainly means disastrous results for our planet and future generations. Undefined challenges lie ahead, but collective efforts can lead to sustainable solutions that benefit all.

*The Author is a Research Intern at the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS). She is currently pursuing her Masters in Political Science from Dibrugarh University, Assam.

Disclaimer: The Views in the Article are of the Author.